Enigma at Battle Hardened: Portland 2024

Enigma

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Pat Eshghy

15th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.1

Diff

75:25

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Jesse Kennon (Iyslander) - Expected: 73:27

75:25

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs aiden anable (Iyslander) - Expected: 73:27

75:25

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Iyslander) - Expected: 73:27

40:60

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Dylan Dart (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Loss vs Ben Black (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Win vs Ryan Alldredge (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Iyslander	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.07
R2	Commoner	Iyslander	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.13
R3	Commoner	Iyslander	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.20
R4	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Commoner	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	Commoner	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Andrew Mendelsohn

19th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Mercy Bickell (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Kolby Phelps (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs Anthony Pham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

75:25

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Iyslander) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

50:50

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Aaron Nash (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

75:25

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Win vs Lucas Voghell (Iyslander) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.36
R3	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.54
R4	Commoner	Iyslander	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R5	Commoner	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Commoner	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Commoner	Iyslander	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.46

Matt Muus

20th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.9

Diff

40:60

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Natalie Birch (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

75:25

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Win vs aiden anable (Iyslander) - Expected: 73:27

40:60

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Maxwell Perlin (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

75:25

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Iyslander) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

75:25

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Eli Cook (Iyslander) - Expected: 73:27

40:60

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Win vs Patrick Steiche (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Commoner	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Commoner	Iyslander	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.20
R4	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.72
R5	Commoner	Iyslander	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R6	Commoner	Iyslander	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.39
R7	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.26

Zach Nichols

40th • 4-2-1

86%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.9

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Ashton Dean (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Draw vs Sara Cady (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Amanda Sullender (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Frailey (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Win vs Cristopher Allen (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Commoner	Chane	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	Commoner	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Commoner	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.90
R6	Commoner	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Commoner	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Dakota Cochran

45th • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Becker (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Jake Denning (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

75:25

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Win vs Maxwell Taylor (Iyslander) - Expected: 73:27

R5 Commoner

Round 5: Win vs Richard Kerns (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R6 Commoner

Round 6: Loss vs Patrick Steiche (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

R7 Commoner

Round 7: Loss vs Anthony Galleran (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Commoner	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Commoner	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Commoner	Iyslander	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.26
R5	Commoner	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	Commoner	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Logan King

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

75:25

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Win vs Maxwell Taylor (Iyslander) - Expected: 73:27

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Win vs Andrew nelson (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Roecker (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Ben Black (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Iyslander	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.11
R2	Commoner	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Morgan Bawcom-Randall

dropped • 0-3-1

75%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

75:25

R1 Commoner

Round 1: Loss vs Montana Krasnov (Iyslander) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

R2 Commoner

Round 2: Loss vs Dylan Harter (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 Commoner

Round 3: Draw vs Tim Chambers (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R4 Commoner

Round 4: Loss vs Madison Thompson (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Commoner	Iyslander	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R2	Commoner	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Commoner	Chane	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Commoner	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.