Battle Hardened: Las Vegas - Kano (Blitz)

Kano

21 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alexander Vore

3rd • 8-3-0

64%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

5.2

Surp

4.2

Diff

80:20

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Ed Bracamontes (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Weiss (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Eric Lin (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

30:70

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Kehe (Chane) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Tyler Horspool (Chane) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

30:70

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Chane) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R10 Blitz

Round 10: Win vs Collins Mullen (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R11 Blitz

Round 11: Loss vs Michael Feng (Chane) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

64% (7/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.03
R2	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	Blitz	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.27
R4	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R5	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.74
R6	Blitz	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Dash	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.54
R8	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.19
R9	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R10	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.91
R11	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Collins Mullen

5th • 8-2-0

80%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

4.8

Surp

4.1

Diff

80:20

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Kordell Green (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22

80:20

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Jeff Morvan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

30:70

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Rich (Chane) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Lucas Molho (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Majin Bae (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Ian Becker (Unknown)

55:45

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Luke Hillard (Dash) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Blitz

Round 10: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.04
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.07
R3	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.51
R4	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.65
R5	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R6	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.70
R8	Blitz	Dash	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.68
R9	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jesse Hudak

5th • 7-3-0

70%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.0

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Chane) - Expected: 32:68

80:20

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22

80:20

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Sadat Minick (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22

30:70

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Jeff Morvan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Tyler Tedder (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Eric Lin (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Dave Lin (Dash) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Collins Mullen (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R10 Blitz

Round 10: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Chane) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.07
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.11
R4	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.68
R5	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R6	Blitz	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.22
R7	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.70
R8	Blitz	Dash	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.68
R9	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Majin Bae

24th • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.4

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Lin (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Dung (Yung) Le (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Han Vi (Dash) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Dave Cordeiro (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs John McGovern (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Collins Mullen (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Chane) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

30:70

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Chane) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Alexandre Lefebvre (Chane) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Blitz	Dash	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.27
R8	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R9	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Nathaniel Snyder

43rd • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.6

Surp

3.8

Diff

55:45

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Shoopman (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Scott Moore (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Anderson (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Todd Woodworth (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Emmanuel Barron (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Alan Chavarin (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Dash) - Expected: 56:44

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Phil Hensley (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Blitz	Dash	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Matt LeGare

48th • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.7

Surp

3.8

Diff

55:45

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Dash) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Bryce Henschel (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Kyle Dockum (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Banfield (Dash) - Expected: 56:44

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Jasper Hicks (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Phil Hensley (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Rachel Stoddard (Dash) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Eric Shoopman (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Ryan Miller (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Dash	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.38
R5	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Dash	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

John Zapata

52nd • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.2

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Rose smyth (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Josh Ranahan (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Michael Barnes (Dash) - Expected: 56:44

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Dylan Myers (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs David Lee (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Martin Cox (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Jeremy Pennington (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Blitz	Dash	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.28
R8	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Dash	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Brian Trail

53rd • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.3

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Josh Lind (Chane) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Natalie Hunt (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 31:69

80:20

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Whitcomb (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Oshiro (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Kieth Seith (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Anthony Chiechi (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Taylor Metz (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Aaron Moore (Dash) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Lane MacTavish (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R4	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.35
R6	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.48
R8	Blitz	Dash	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.75
R9	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62

Alexander Caplinger

73rd • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

4.7

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Felix Chung (Unknown)

80:20

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Bill Early (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

65:35

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Johnny Wedzicha (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 65:35

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Andy Portillo (Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Adam Jessell (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Josh Gardner (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs John Padavic (Chane) - Expected: 32:68

80:20

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Jonathan Maxwell (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Patrick Weiss (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R3	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R4	Blitz	Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Blitz	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R8	Blitz	Rhinar	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R9	Blitz	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Martin Cox

112th • 3-6-0

89%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

80:20

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Justin Whitcomb (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22

65:35

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Taylor Metz (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Brooks Mitchell (Chane) - Expected: 32:68

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Tim Perlewitz (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Gregory Stahl (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs John Zapata (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Christina Drzewiecki (Dash) - Expected: 56:44

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Patrick Weiss (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Benjamin Brock (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (4.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.04
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Dash	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.66
R8	Blitz	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jacob Anderson

116th • 3-6-0

89%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

4.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Sean Maloney (Unknown)

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Elijah Flanders (Chane) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Jayson DeVaney (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs joel miner (Dash) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Isaac Houk (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Unknown)

55:45

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Christina Drzewiecki (Dash) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Jonathan Oshiro (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Dash	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.47
R6	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Blitz	Dash	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Hazel Hensley

dropped • 3-5-0

88%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Wilson Yu (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Dave Cordeiro (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Mejac (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22

65:35

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Bryce Henschel (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 65:35

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Amber Zee (Chane) - Expected: 32:68

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Phil Hensley (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Dung (Yung) Le (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Blitz	Dash	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.18
R5	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.39
R6	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R7	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sebastian Anaya

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Gracza (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Gabe Sher (Unknown)

65:35

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Nick Deschamps (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

80:20

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Steven Becks (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Rose smyth (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Johnny Wedzicha (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	Blitz	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.21
R5	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Blitz	Dash	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Joshua Rath

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Julian Helgeson (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Sadat Minick (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Chane) - Expected: 32:68

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs William Pistel (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

30:70

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Josh Lind (Chane) - Expected: 32:68

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Rose smyth (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Fernando Alvizo (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.10
R3	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R6	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

William Pearlman

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

65:35

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs David Ross (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 65:35

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Caleb Womack (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

30:70

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Elijah Flanders (Chane) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Natalie Hunt (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 31:69

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Gump (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.10
R2	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R6	Blitz	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jordan Biggs

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Tang (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Hahn (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Todd Woodworth (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

65:35

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Damon Terry (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Chase Osborne

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Alexandre Lefebvre (Chane) - Expected: 32:68

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Curtis Roth (Emperor, Dracai of Aesir) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

30:70

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Koosha Jahani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	Blitz	Emperor, Dracai of Aesir	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Jonathan Gracza

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Mark Larsen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Eric Shoopman (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nathan Thi

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Machusak (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

65:35

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Leigh Pushard (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Julian Helgeson

dropped • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Scott Wynrose (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Anthony Faciane

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Zak Cargin (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.