Prism, Advent of Thrones at Battle Hardened: Las Vegas

Prism, Advent of Thrones

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Adam Fronsee

27th • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Banfield (Dash) - Expected: 50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Bryant Pong (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs roque roque_flores (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs blake smith (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Charlton Smith (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Carson Osborne (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs John Padavic (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Luke Hillard (Dash) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Caleb Womack

39th • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Aubrey Waltman (Unknown)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs William Pearlman (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Nick Nobriga (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Hahn (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Luke Magnuson (Dash) - Expected: 50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Josh Lind (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Rose smyth (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Colin Turner (Dash) - Expected: 50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Thorin Bein (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Rose smyth

62nd • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs John Zapata (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Josh Gardner (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Maxwell (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Connor Feezor (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Rath (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Caleb Womack (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Alan Chavarin (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Koosha Jahani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Leo Shea

76th • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Mychael Caywood (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs David Sitrick (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Colin Turner (Dash) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Anthony Galleran (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Ryan Miller (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Nick Rutkowski (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Amber Zee (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Erick Avila (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jesse Machusak

84th • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.1

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Thi (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Thorin Bein (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs James Wray (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs John McGovern (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs David Ross (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Rowland (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Reid (Dash) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Dash) - Expected: 50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Bryant Pong (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Blitz	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ed Bracamontes

87th • 4-5-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

4.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Gump (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Kordell Green (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Rodel Rodea (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Fernando Alvizo (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Timothy Barron (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Damon Terry (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Phil Hensley (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Merrick Kemp (Dash) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Blitz	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Miller

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Tim Lee (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs John McGovern (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Aaron Moore (Dash) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Han Vi (Dash) - Expected: 50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Whitcomb (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Blitz	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

William Pistel

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Sean Fox (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Mejac (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Ian Becker (Unknown)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Emmanuel Barron (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jacob Bartram

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Steven Becks (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Felix Chung (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Phillip Reardon (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Chris Legg (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jacob Kindberg

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Carlos Cruz (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Trevor Galligan (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.