Chane at Battle Hardened: Las Vegas

Chane

31 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Andrew Padlesky

2nd • 11-1-0

100%

Meta

+3.7

Perf

4.7

Surp

3.9

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Alan Chavarin (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

75:25

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Tedder (Rhinar) - Expected: 75:25

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Joshua Rath (Kano) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Nick Deschamps (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Carson Osborne (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Jonathan Magnuson (Briar) - Expected: 62:38

70:30

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Majin Bae (Kano) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Alexander Vore (Kano) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R10 Blitz

Round 10: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Kano) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R11 Blitz

Round 11: Win vs Ryan Rich (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Blitz

Round 12: Loss vs Michael Feng (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (12/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.7 Wins (7.3 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.07
R3	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.14
R4	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.19
R5	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.33
R6	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	Blitz	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.41
R8	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.37
R9	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.42
R10	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.47
R11	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R12	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Feng

1st • 10-2-0

92%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

5.3

Surp

4.6

Diff

85:15

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea) - Expected: 83:17

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Gavin Myre (Emperor, Dracai of Aesir) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs alberto diaz (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Josh Lind (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Hahn (Vynnset) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Michael Dailey (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Lucas Molho (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Carson Osborne (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Blitz

Round 10: Win vs Carson Osborne (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R11 Blitz

Round 11: Win vs Alexander Vore (Kano) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R12 Blitz

Round 12: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dorinthea	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.02
R2	Blitz	Emperor, Dracai of Aesir	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	Blitz	Vynnset	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.23
R6	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R7	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R9	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R11	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.52
R12	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ryan Rich

3rd • 9-2-0

91%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

5.3

Surp

3.8

Diff

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Norah Porter (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Dennis Pham (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Horspool (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Collins Mullen (Kano) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Nick Rutkowski (Prism) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Christopher Yunck (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Josh Lind (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Jonathan Magnuson (Briar) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R10 Blitz

Round 10: Win vs Jonathan Magnuson (Briar) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R11 Blitz

Round 11: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

91% (10/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.10
R2	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.27
R4	Blitz	Kano	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R5	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.45
R6	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.40
R7	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.50
R8	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.73
R9	Blitz	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.57
R10	Blitz	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.64
R11	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Carson Osborne

5th • 8-2-0

100%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

4.7

Surp

3.7

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Gregory Stahl (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs James Wray (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Fay (Vynnset) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Charles Simmons (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Ian Becker (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Long Dao (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Michael Feng (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Blitz

Round 10: Loss vs Michael Feng (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Blitz	Vynnset	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.16
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.31
R5	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R6	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.70
R8	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Long Dao

11th • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Whitley (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Fernando Alvizo (Prism) - Expected: 60:40

75:25

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Ian Daryl Bon (Rhinar) - Expected: 75:25

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Henry Gomez (Prism) - Expected: 60:40

75:25

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Josef Mendez (Rhinar) - Expected: 75:25

60:40

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Nick Deschamps (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Coan (Briar) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Carson Osborne (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Michael Dailey (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.16
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.14
R4	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.33
R5	Blitz	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.23
R6	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.52
R7	Blitz	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.54
R8	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.09

Sebastiano Cavallo

13th • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.6

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs joel miner (Dash) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Stephen Leany (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Xavier Byrne (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Yunck (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 47:53

85:15

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea) - Expected: 83:17

70:30

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Majin Bae (Kano) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

70:30

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Josh Lind (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.06
R2	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.35
R5	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	Blitz	Dorinthea	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.18
R7	Blitz	Kano	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R8	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.50
R9	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Alexandre Lefebvre

15th • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs alberto diaz (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Chase Osborne (Kano) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Gump (Prism) - Expected: 60:40

85:15

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Phil Hensley (Dorinthea) - Expected: 83:17

75:25

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Karan Gill (Rhinar) - Expected: 75:25

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Alan Chavarin (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs William Bradshaw (Prism) - Expected: 60:40

70:30

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Majin Bae (Kano) - Expected: 68:32

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.12
R3	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R4	Blitz	Dorinthea	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.12
R5	Blitz	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.23
R6	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.66
R9	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.56

Brooks Mitchell

16th • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Rachel Stoddard (Dash) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Lucas Barnes (Vynnset) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Martin Cox (Kano) - Expected: 68:32

85:15

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs John Ritchey (Dorinthea) - Expected: 83:17

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Eric Shoopman (Vynnset) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs CODY READY (Prism) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Josh Lind (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Benjamin Coan (Briar) - Expected: 62:38

85:15

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea) - Expected: 83:17

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R2	Blitz	Vynnset	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.12
R3	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.19
R4	Blitz	Dorinthea	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.12
R5	Blitz	Vynnset	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.30
R6	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.49
R7	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Blitz	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.62
R9	Blitz	Dorinthea	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.26

Amber Zee

46th • 6-2-1

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.0

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Draw vs Scott Moore (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

75:25

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Darren Rennie (Rhinar) - Expected: 75:25

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Becker (Shiyana, Diamond Gemini) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Bryce Henschel (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Mychael Caywood (Prism) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

70:30

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Hazel Hensley (Kano) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Raj Giri (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Leo Shea (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs John Padavic (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.09
R3	Blitz	Shiyana, Diamond Gemini	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.35
R5	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.37
R7	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Josh Lind

22nd • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Brian Trail (Kano) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Michael Barnes (Dash) - Expected: 68:32

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Andy Portillo (Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Feng (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Rath (Kano) - Expected: 68:32

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Caleb Womack (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Brooks Mitchell (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.06
R2	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.12
R3	Blitz	Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.31
R6	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tyler Horspool

23rd • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.4

Diff

75:25

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Andy truong (Rhinar) - Expected: 75:25

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Coan (Briar) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Colin Turner (Dash) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Jeff Stamm (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Michael Feng (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kano) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.05
R2	Blitz	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.16
R3	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.31
R6	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Blitz	Kano	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R9	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brodie Spurlock

36th • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.4

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Merrick Kemp (Dash) - Expected: 68:32

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Phillip Bradford (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Damon Terry (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs alberto diaz (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Kehe (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Mychael Caywood (Prism) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

70:30

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Dash) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

70:30

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs brynn nieboer (Vynnset) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.06
R2	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.35
R5	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	Blitz	Dash	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R9	Blitz	Vynnset	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.54

Joshua Kehe

38th • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Jeremy Werner (Unknown)

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Colin Turner (Dash) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Luke Hillard (Dash) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Rhea Adams (Prism) - Expected: 60:40

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kano) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Nick Deschamps (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Rachel Stoddard (Dash) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

60:40

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Anthony Galleran (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.12
R3	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.19
R4	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.33
R5	Blitz	Kano	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R6	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.61
R8	Blitz	Dash	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R9	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Jeff Stamm

45th • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.0

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Moore (Dash) - Expected: 68:32

85:15

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Aaron Lara (Dorinthea) - Expected: 83:17

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Zak Cargin (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Jamal Salem Saedidaryan (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs John Padavic (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Prism) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

45:55

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Natalie Hunt (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 47:53

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Andy Portillo (Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.06
R2	Blitz	Dorinthea	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.06
R3	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.35
R5	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.97
R9	Blitz	Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Stephen Leany

47th • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.4

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Eric Shoopman (Vynnset) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Gavin Myre (Emperor, Dracai of Aesir) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

75:25

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Ian Daryl Bon (Rhinar) - Expected: 75:25

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Michael Dalton (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

75:25

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Tim Herman (Rhinar) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

85:15

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs John Ritchey (Dorinthea) - Expected: 83:17

60:40

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Johnny Wedzicha (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Vynnset	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.06
R2	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Dorinthea	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R4	Blitz	Emperor, Dracai of Aesir	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Blitz	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.23
R6	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Rhinar	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R8	Blitz	Dorinthea	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.23
R9	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Elijah Flanders

49th • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.6

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Kellen Wheaton (Unknown)

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Anderson (Kano) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

70:30

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs William Pearlman (Kano) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Dave Lin (Dash) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

75:25

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs The Better Johnson (Rhinar) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

70:30

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Brock (Vynnset) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Rihanna LaGrou (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Raj Giri (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.12
R3	Blitz	Dash	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R4	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.25
R5	Blitz	Dash	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R6	Blitz	Rhinar	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R7	Blitz	Vynnset	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.42
R8	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

John Padavic

56th • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Ayden Dukeshier (Prism) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs David Sitrick (Briar) - Expected: 62:38

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Dash) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

70:30

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Fay (Vynnset) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Aaron Moore (Dash) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Alexander Caplinger (Kano) - Expected: 68:32

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Amber Zee (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (5.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.08
R2	Blitz	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.16
R3	Blitz	Dash	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R4	Blitz	Vynnset	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.24
R5	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.37
R7	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.44
R8	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Raj Giri

59th • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Mark Martin (Shiyana, Diamond Gemini) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Ian Becker (Unknown)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Jasper Hicks (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

70:30

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Dash) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

75:25

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Johnson (Rhinar) - Expected: 75:25

60:40

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Zachary Suchomel (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Amber Zee (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Prism) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Elijah Flanders (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Shiyana, Diamond Gemini	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Dash	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R5	Blitz	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.23
R6	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.52
R7	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R9	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Thorin Bein

63rd • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

4.6

Surp

2.1

Diff

85:15

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Sara Whitcomb (Dorinthea) - Expected: 83:17

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Machusak (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Hahn (Vynnset) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

85:15

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Chris Legg (Prism) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Taylor Metz (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Chris Rowland (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Phillip Bradford (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Caleb Womack (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (5.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dorinthea	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.03
R2	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Blitz	Vynnset	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	Blitz	Dorinthea	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R5	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.41
R6	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.52
R7	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Fay

67th • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

60:40

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Bryson Peek (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Phillip Manwaring (Prism) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Gump (Prism) - Expected: 60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs James Wray (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Connor Feezor (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Dash) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs CODY READY (Prism) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Benjamin Coan (Briar) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (5.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.09
R2	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.33
R5	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.44
R8	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.66
R9	Blitz	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Dennis Pham

72nd • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Mihalas (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs David Lee (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Rihanna LaGrou (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Tim Herman (Rhinar) - Expected: 75:25

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Ian Becker (Unknown)

70:30

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Dash) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Zak Cargin (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Phillip Bradford (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Blitz	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.23
R6	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Dash	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R8	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Rihanna LaGrou

90th • 4-4-1

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

4.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Miller (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

75:25

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Connor Matza (Rhinar) - Expected: 75:25

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Carlos Cruz (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Dennis Pham (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Draw vs Tim Perlewitz (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Joseph Cervantes (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs blake smith (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Elijah Flanders (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Phillip Manwaring (Prism) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (4.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.09
R3	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.61
R8	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

alberto diaz

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Alexandre Lefebvre (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs The Better Johnson (Rhinar) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Feng (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Jeremie Maurina (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs blake smith (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Dash) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.12
R3	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.67
R7	Blitz	Dash	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Nicholas Whitley

dropped • 3-2-1

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Long Dao (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Draw vs Zachary Suchomel (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Isaac Houk (Vynnset) - Expected: 69:31

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Phillip Bradford (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs CODY READY (Prism) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

75:25

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Tim Herman (Rhinar) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Draw	✓	0.58	-
R3	Blitz	Vynnset	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.27
R4	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Blitz	Rhinar	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Andrew Lorenz

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Kano) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Raymond Griffin (Vynnset) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Gabe Sher (Unknown)

70:30

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Reid (Dash) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.11
R2	Blitz	Vynnset	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.45
R5	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Wesley Dong

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Peter Desautels (Vynnset) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Reid (Dash) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Jessell (Briar) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Vynnset	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.14
R2	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.28
R3	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Blitz	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Brishen Jaimes

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Phillip Bradford (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Cudney (Vynnset) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Mychael Caywood (Prism) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

75:25

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Daryl Bon (Rhinar) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Vynnset	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.27
R3	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Blitz	Rhinar	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Raj Parikh

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Hahn (Vynnset) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Justin Rowland (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Coan (Briar) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Vynnset	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Blitz	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Stewart Mcgirt

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Jasper Hicks (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Jayson DeVaney (Vynnset) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Michel Corvino (Prism) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Vynnset	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Christopher Higashi

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Todd Woodworth (Vynnset) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Connor Feezor (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Vynnset	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Rodrigo Martinez

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs roque roque_flores (Unknown)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Gregory Stahl (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.