Battle Hardened: Las Vegas - Vynnset (Blitz)

Vynnset

21 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Joshua Hahn

44th • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.6

Surp

3.4

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Raj Parikh (Chane) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Jordan Biggs (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Thorin Bein (Chane) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Caleb Womack (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

30:70

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Feng (Chane) - Expected: 31:69

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Luke Hillard (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Prism) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Nick Deschamps (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Tim Herman (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.19
R2	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.56
R4	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R6	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Prism	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.95
R9	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Matthew Fay

58th • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Michel Corvino (Prism) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Kieth Seith (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 48:52

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Carson Osborne (Chane) - Expected: 31:69

30:70

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs John Padavic (Chane) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Anthony Chiechi (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Dylan Myers (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Phillip Manwaring (Prism) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 48:52

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Ian Becker (Unknown)

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.13
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.24
R3	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R5	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Prism	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.93
R8	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R9	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

brynn nieboer

71st • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Zachary Suchomel (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 48:52

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Alan Chavarin (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Aubrey Waltman (Unknown)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs James Wray (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Michel Corvino (Prism) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Ryan Johnson (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Kevin Tang (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Tyler Tedder (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Chane) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Prism	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.66
R6	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Isaac Houk

82nd • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.2

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Borecki (Unknown)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Christina Drzewiecki (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Whitley (Chane) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Timothy Barron (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 48:52

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Scott Moore (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Anderson (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Zak Cargin (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Jasper Hicks (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Gavin Myre (Emperor, Dracai of Aesir) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Emperor, Dracai of Aesir	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Eric Shoopman

88th • 4-5-0

67%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Stephen Leany (Chane) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Gracza (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Patrick Weiss (Prism) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Brooks Mitchell (Chane) - Expected: 31:69

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Charles Simmons (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Matt LeGare (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Dung (Yung) Le (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Prism	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.53
R5	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R6	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.83
R8	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Benjamin Brock

101st • 4-5-0

78%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Coan (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Justin Whitcomb (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Dalton (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Cudney (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs roque roque_flores (Unknown)

45:55

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Phillip Manwaring (Prism) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Elijah Flanders (Chane) - Expected: 31:69

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Unknown)

50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Martin Cox (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Prism	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R8	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jonathan Oshiro

117th • 2-7-0

89%

Meta

-2.4

Perf

4.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Luke Hillard (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Johnny Wedzicha (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Timothy Barron (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Brian Trail (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Belen Saucedo (Unknown)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Unknown)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Mark Martin (Shiyana, Diamond Gemini) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Michel Corvino (Prism) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Jacob Anderson (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Shiyana, Diamond Gemini	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Blitz	Prism	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R9	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Josh Gardner

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Rose smyth (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Steven Becks (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Zak Cargin (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Alexander Caplinger (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Luke Hillard (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Blitz	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Joseph Gannon

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Emmanuel Barron (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Timothy Barron (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Henry Gomez (Prism) - Expected: 44:56

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Jeremy Werner (Unknown)

45:55

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Trevor Galligan (Prism) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Erick Avila (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 48:52

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.27
R3	Blitz	Prism	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Blitz	Prism	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.75
R6	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.94
R8	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Emmanuel Barron

dropped • 3-5-0

88%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Gannon (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Luke MacDowall (Prism) - Expected: 44:56

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Luke Hillard (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs William Pistel (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Jonathan Maxwell (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs roque roque_flores (Unknown)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Prism	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.45
R4	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lucas Barnes

dropped • 1-7-0

75%

Meta

-2.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Tedder (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Brooks Mitchell (Chane) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Cudney (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Kyle Dockum (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Mark Martin (Shiyana, Diamond Gemini) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Rodel Rodea (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Michel Corvino (Prism) - Expected: 44:56

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Kevin Becker (Shiyana, Diamond Gemini) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Shiyana, Diamond Gemini	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Blitz	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Prism	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Blitz	Shiyana, Diamond Gemini	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Raymond Griffin

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Chris Rowland (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 48:52

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Chane) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Damon Terry (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Nick Rutkowski (Prism) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Prism) - Expected: 44:56

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R2	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.56
R3	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.54
R4	Blitz	Prism	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Blitz	Prism	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Anthony Chiechi

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Galleran (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 48:52

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Tyruss Sennett (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Justin Rowland (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Jayson Wiggins (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Fay (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Brian Trail (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brian Lorenz

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Alex Thomas (Unknown)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Jesus Montijo (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Chris Legg (Prism) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Tee Thebeau (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Blitz	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Prism	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.72
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.86
R5	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dave Cordeiro

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Prism) - Expected: 44:56

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Kyle Dockum (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Hazel Hensley (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Majin Bae (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Todd Woodworth

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Higashi (Chane) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Nick Deschamps (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Jordan Biggs (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs The Better Johnson (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.34
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthew Cudney

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs David Sitrick (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Brishen Jaimes (Chane) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Barnes (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Brock (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Gavin Myre (Emperor, Dracai of Aesir) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Emperor, Dracai of Aesir	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jayson DeVaney

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Bill Early (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Stewart Mcgirt (Chane) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Anderson (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Pennington (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.84
R3	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Peter Desautels

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Chane) - Expected: 31:69

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Jeremy Pennington (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Michel Corvino (Prism) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Prism	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Scott Wynrose

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Nick Nobriga (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Julian Helgeson (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Taylor Nifong

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.