Battle Hardened: Las Vegas - Ira, Crimson Haze (Blitz)

Ira, Crimson Haze

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Michael Dailey

26th • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Belen Saucedo (Unknown)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Emmanuel Barron (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Bill Early (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs MOISES LOPEZ (Dash) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Feng (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Dave Lin (Dash) - Expected: 50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Long Dao (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Blitz	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.51
R6	Blitz	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Koosha Jahani

51st • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.8

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Bryant Pong (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Piotr Gruszczyński (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Felix Chung (Unknown)

70:30

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Chase Osborne (Kano) - Expected: 69:31

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs David Hamilton (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Dash) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Merrick Kemp (Dash) - Expected: 50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Fernando Alvizo (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Rose smyth (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.24
R5	Blitz	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Blitz	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Natalie Hunt

78th • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Dash) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Brian Trail (Kano) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Mark Larsen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs William Pearlman (Kano) - Expected: 69:31

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Brian Bardolf Fawcett (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Justin Rowland (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Fernando Alvizo (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.12
R3	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.29
R6	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Blitz	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R9	Blitz	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Mark Larsen

94th • 4-5-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Becker (Unknown)

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Gracza (Kano) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Natalie Hunt (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs John Paul Kilcrease (Dash) - Expected: 50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Bryant Pong (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Reid (Dash) - Expected: 50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs David Lee (Unknown)

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs John McGovern (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.12
R3	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Blitz	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jeff Morvan

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Johnson (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Cervantes (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Collins Mullen (Kano) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

70:30

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Kano) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Connor Feezor (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Blitz	Kano	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	Blitz	Kano	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R5	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Norah Porter

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Han Vi (Dash) - Expected: 50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Belen Saucedo (Unknown)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Dung (Yung) Le (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.