Briar at Sunday Showdown: Edinburgh 2026

Briar

18 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alexander Reichhart

1st • 8-2-0

90%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

4.9

Surp

4.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Emlyn Ingram (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Elista Cyrek (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Samed Demir (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Winning (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alessio Bouko (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Fai) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs James Clark (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Gustavo Cilleruelo (Riptide) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

90% (9/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.35
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Riptide	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.98
R10	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.06

James Clark

5th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Liam Canning (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Michael Feng (Enigma) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Atkinson (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Mark Henderson (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Foulkes (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Gustavo Cilleruelo (Riptide) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Alexander Reichhart (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.32
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.40
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.67
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R7	Silver Age	Riptide	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bogdan-Andrei Oros

17th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Fraser Wallace (Iyslander) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Stuart Clark (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Emlyn Ingram (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Bruno Vale Fernandes (Dromai) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Mario Donoso (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs David Calf (Fai) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Fai) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.55
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Alessio Bouko

18th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ryan McVean (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jorge Hernández (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jack Warren (Fai) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alexander Reichhart (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Benjamin Atkinson (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Dromai) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.25
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.91
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Mario Donoso

20th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Dromai) - Expected: 51:49

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adrian Lee (Rhinar) - Expected: 83:17

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Fraser Wallace (Iyslander) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Wallace Pate (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Enigma) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs David Watt (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.10
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Rhys Francis

30th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.2

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Enigma) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Kaiser (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dominic McKenzie (Azalea) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jay Malone (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs James Goode-Hamy (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Robin Lesage (Dromai) - Expected: 51:49

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jennifer Buchanan (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.63
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.82
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Elista Cyrek

32nd • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lewis Reid (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Reichhart (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ryan McVean (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Dromai) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Patrick Kaiser (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Alan Williams (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Wallace Pate

34th • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Declan Patrick (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Atkinson (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Duncan Macbeth (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mario Donoso (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Josh Keys (Lexi) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Spencer Baker (Dromai) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.25
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Jay Malone

36th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Liam Blakeman (Fai) - Expected: 67:33

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jennifer Buchanan (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Rhys Francis (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lewis Reid (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Enigma) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.17
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.06
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Ilya Pokusaev

39th • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Dromai) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Connor Davis (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs David Watt (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Emlyn Ingram (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Fernando García-casarrubios (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs anthony blakeman (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Liam Blakeman (Fai) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.35
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.36
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

anthony blakeman

43rd • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Arnold Baars (Azalea) - Expected: 36:64

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jennifer Buchanan (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs James Goode-Hamy (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Robin Lesage (Dromai) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alan Williams (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ilya Pokusaev (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Barry Buchanan (Dromai) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Paul van Gijssel

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs James Watson (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs David Calf (Fai) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mark Henderson (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Atkinson (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Bruno Vale Fernandes (Dromai) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Marco Casadio (Enigma) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.80
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Daniel Winning

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jay Malone (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Dromai) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Kaiser (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alexander Reichhart (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Marco Casadio (Enigma) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Patrick Kaiser

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Anatoly Mukhin (Enigma) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Rhys Francis (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ryan McVean (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Elista Cyrek (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jorge Hernández

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs David Calf (Fai) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alessio Bouko (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Liam Blakeman (Fai) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Duncan Macbeth (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.99

Valtteri Kurhela

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Duncan Macbeth (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Adrian Lee (Rhinar) - Expected: 83:17

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Josh Keys (Lexi) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.20
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Stuart Clark

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

James Watson

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.