Enigma at Sunday Showdown: Edinburgh 2026

Enigma

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Marco Casadio

15th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mark Henderson (Oscilio) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Barry Buchanan (Dromai) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory

100:0

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dylan Thompson (Oldhim) - Expected: 100:0

10:90

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs David Calf (Fai) - Expected: 11:89

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Winning (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Anatoly Mukhin (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Win	✗	0.83	0.74
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.66
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Michael Feng

19th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

90:10

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Jud (Iyslander) - Expected: 91:9

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs James Clark (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kristopher Ryan-Clout (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 86:14

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jennifer Buchanan (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Dromai) - Expected: 17:83

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Elista Cyrek (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

10:90

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jack Warren (Fai) - Expected: 11:89

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.09
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.66
R7	Silver Age	Fai	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-

Anatoly Mukhin

22nd • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.2

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Kaiser (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Arnold Baars (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Simon MacDonald (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jurij Di Carlo (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Lewis Reid (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 53:47

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alex Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Marco Casadio (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.66
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jeremy Miller

24th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rhys Francis (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs David Watt (Oscilio) - Expected: 76:24

10:90

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Fai) - Expected: 11:89

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs David Leigh (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Samed Demir (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 86:14, favorite upset

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mario Donoso (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jay Malone (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.11
R3	Silver Age	Fai	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	85%	Loss	✓	0.86	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Simon MacDonald

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Barry Buchanan (Dromai) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Bruno Vale Fernandes (Dromai) - Expected: 17:83

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Anatoly Mukhin (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Gustavo Cilleruelo (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Win	✗	0.83	0.65
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.