Oldhim at Sunday Showdown: Edinburgh 2026

Oldhim

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Benjamin Westmore

16th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Valtteri Kurhela (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Warre Sevens (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tim Dasiukevich (Dromai) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Samed Demir (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 65:35

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs David Calf (Fai) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Oscilio) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Dromai) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.35
R5	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Dylan Thompson

26th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adrian Lee (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Samed Demir (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

0:100

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Marco Casadio (Enigma) - Expected: 0:100

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Barry Buchanan (Dromai) - Expected: 56:44

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Josh Keys (Lexi) - Expected: 82:18

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Liam Canning (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Emlyn Ingram (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.21
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62

Juan Chacon

dropped • 1-1-1

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Samed Demir (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Draw vs Markus Reichhart (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Erika Forslöf

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Fernando García-casarrubios (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Fai) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs David Calf (Fai) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.