Oscilio at Sunday Showdown: Edinburgh 2026

Oscilio

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Vincent Weinzierl

2nd • 8-2-0

90%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

4.9

Surp

3.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Craig Canning (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs David Leigh (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Arnold Baars (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alessio Bouko (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs James Clark (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Benjamin Westmore (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Alexander Reichhart (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Samed Demir (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Mark Henderson (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Alexander Reichhart (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

90% (9/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.38
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.83
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.66
R8	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.36
R9	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Mark Henderson

3rd • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.8

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Marco Casadio (Enigma) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kristopher Ryan-Clout (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs James Clark (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tim Dasiukevich (Dromai) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jack Warren (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Samed Demir (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Matthew Foulkes (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.23
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.29
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.35
R8	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthew Foulkes

5th • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alex Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Robin Lesage (Dromai) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Dromai) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jude Cornett (Dromai) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs James Clark (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs David Calf (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Mark Henderson (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.20
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.26
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

David Watt

14th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lucas de Oliveira Pacheco (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Enigma) - Expected: 24:76

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ilya Pokusaev (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jack Warren (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Spencer Baker (Dromai) - Expected: 69:31

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Arnold Baars (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Mario Donoso (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.38
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

Benjamin Atkinson

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Markus Reichhart (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Wallace Pate (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs James Clark (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jack Warren (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Alessio Bouko (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.63
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.