Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lukas Knirschnig

5th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Armin Beiglböck (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Florian Krainer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Krogsgard (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthias Zeiziger (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 74:26

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ognjen Marinkovic (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Andreas Koch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Tibor Csonka (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.54
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.25
R8	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.29
R10	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

valentin mackl

11th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Borisz Sztaniszlav (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ethan Krogsgard (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Max Karstenberg (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andreas Koch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Cosmo Hahn (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Christoph Greischberger (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R8	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.68
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Andreas Koch

12th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Wallner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jakob Indra (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tom Tucek (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs valentin mackl (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Manuel Hoffmann (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Lukas Knirschnig (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.09
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Philipp Reiter

21st • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bernhard Carbonari (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Tucek (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Manuel Hoffmann (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Florian Moza (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 78:22

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Phillip Müller-Vana (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.24
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.79
R9	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Alexander Reichhart

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Markus Reichhart (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Wallner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Koch (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ethan Krogsgard (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.26

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.