Ira, Scarlet Revenger at National Championship 2026 - Austria
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
1 players • Match results by round
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dropped • 2-2-0
25%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs valentin mackl (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Manfred Moza (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Round 3: Win vs Moritz Pürzelmayer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Bernhard Carbonari (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.