Valda, Seismic Impact at National Championship 2026

Valda, Seismic Impact

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tibor Csonka

2nd • 7-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Manfred Eregger (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Koch (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

90:10

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ognjen Marinkovic (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 91:9

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Tsohohey (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Christoph Greischberger (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Luka Leko (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Lukas Knirschnig (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

90:10

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ognjen Marinkovic (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 91:9

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Luka Leko (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.16
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.05
R4	CC	Dash I/O	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.24
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.55
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.66
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.06
R11	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.17
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Paul Fuchs

16th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christoph Greischberger (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Lackner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Manfred Eregger (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Florian Moza (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Ethan Krogsgard (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.94
R8	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Dash I/O	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.80

Florin-Cristian Loghin

18th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paul Fuchs (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Turner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Manfred Moza (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Stefan Triebl (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 32:68

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ethan Krogsgard (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Philipp Reiter (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.71
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.44

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.