National Championship 2026 - Austria - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Daniel Wallner

10th • 5-1-0

50%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

3.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andreas Koch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Reichhart (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andreas Guetz (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Luka Leko (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michael Lackner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Christoph Lengauer (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.18
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.51
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.15
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.72

Florian Krainer

15th • 5-1-0

67%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hex Hex (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 79:21

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lukas Knirschnig (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christoph Greischberger (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Phillip Müller-Vana (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Christoph Lengauer (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

85:15

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Cosmo Hahn (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 86:14

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.06
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.40
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R9	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.33

Brandon Turner

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Denk (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Tsohohey (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Manuel Hoffmann (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.39
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.