National Championship 2026 - Portugal - Oscilio, Constella Intelligence (CC)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tiago Queirós

5th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marco Pinto (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luís Monteiro (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Filipe Casimiro (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tiago Rodrigues (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Henrique Brito (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Filipe Coutinho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Tiago Costa (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.35
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.52
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.59
R8	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Rafael Salsa

10th • 5-1-0

50%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs André Ferreira (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bernardo José Alves (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Afonso Fernandes (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nuno Miguel Correia das Neves (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Filipe Ficalho (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Rúben Martins (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.40
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.63
R9	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.38

Afonso Fernandes

12th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.6

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rafael Barreto (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs José Guimarães (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Filipe Coutinho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Luís Monteiro (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Julian Flury (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.09
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.62
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50

Mário Abrantes

13th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

3.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Filipe Coutinho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marco Pinto (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rafael Carvalho (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ícaro Peixoto (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs André Ferreira (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Tiago Rodrigues (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R4	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.18
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.56

João Vieira

35th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tiago Polónio (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paulo Sherring (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Luís Monteiro (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rafael Barreto (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Carlos Guilherme (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Rúben Caldeira (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.36
R8	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.63
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.07

Marco Pinto

28th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tiago Queirós (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mário Abrantes (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nuno Paiva (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Simao Oliveira (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Bruno Patrão (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Augusto Silva (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.61
R8	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.51
R9	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Julian Flury

17th • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ícaro Peixoto (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 83:17

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Filipe Coutinho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paulo Sherring (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Henrique Brito (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Tiago Polónio (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Afonso Fernandes (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.04
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

David Rodrigues

40th • 1-5-0

50%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Fernandes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nuno Miguel Correia das Neves (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Henrique Brito (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs José Guimarães (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Augusto Silva (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Joao Pereira (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

André Ferreira

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Guilherme Coutinho (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rúben Caldeira (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rafael Carvalho (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.74
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Guilherme Silva

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nuno Paiva (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Golden (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.