National Championship 2026 - Portugal - Zyggy Starlight (CC)

Zyggy Starlight

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Bruno Patrão

39th • 1-4-1

50%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Simao Oliveira (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joao Pereira (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Cordeiro (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Lucas Golden (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Marco Pinto (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Filipe Casimiro (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.35
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Lucas Golden

43rd • 1-4-1

50%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Marcos Vassão (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Guilherme Silva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ícaro Peixoto (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Bruno Patrão (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Carla Correia (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 24:76

25:75

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Miguel Cardoso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.29
R3	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Alexandre Corte Real

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mariano Lemus (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pedro Carvalho (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Simao Oliveira (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 24:76

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Li (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 24:76

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Mia Miguel (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.77

Manuel Cunha

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Carlos Guilherme (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.