National Championship 2026 - Portugal - Vynnset, Iron Maiden (CC)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jose Alves

15th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Carla Correia (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Cordeiro (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Filipe Ficalho (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joao Pereira (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Fernandes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Paulo Sherring (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.12
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.09
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R9	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Nuno Paiva

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Guilherme Silva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joao Pereira (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marco Pinto (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Samuel Cordeiro (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Rafael Barreto (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.25
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.76
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Mia Miguel

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joao Pereira (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rodolfo Brites (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Fernandes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Alexandre Corte Real (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R8	CC	Zyggy Starlight	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Patrick Alain Franco

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rafael Carvalho (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mariano Lemus (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rúben Martins (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Augusto Silva (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Paulo Resende (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.14
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.