Fai, Rising Rebellion at National Championship 2026

Fai, Rising Rebellion

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Rúben Martins

19th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luís Monteiro (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Fernandes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Alain Franco (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tiago Costa (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 25:75

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Miguel Cardoso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.69
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.02
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Carla Correia

41st • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jose Alves (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rúben Caldeira (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Augusto Silva (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Filipe Casimiro (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Lucas Golden (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Paulo Resende (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.26
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.58
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	CC	Zyggy Starlight	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.52
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daniel Li

30th • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bernardo José Alves (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tiago Polónio (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rui Carvalho (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexandre Corte Real (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ícaro Peixoto (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs José Guimarães (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.26
R8	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Rafael Carvalho

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Alain Franco (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ícaro Peixoto (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs André Ferreira (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.60

Simao Oliveira

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bruno Patrão (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Augusto Silva (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexandre Corte Real (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Marco Pinto (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.29
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.