National Championship 2026 - Portugal - Kassai of the Golden Sand (CC)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Rodolfo Brites

14th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.6

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paulo Sherring (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mia Miguel (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marcos Vassão (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Filipe Ficalho (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs José Guimarães (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Luís Monteiro (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.76
R9	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.16

Rafael Barreto

24th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.4

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Afonso Fernandes (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 31:69

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Miguel Cardoso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Filipe Coutinho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs João Vieira (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 31:69

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Nuno Paiva (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Guilherme Coutinho (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.04
R9	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.15

Rui Carvalho

dropped • 2-1-1

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Rúben Caldeira (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Henrique Brito (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Li (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marcos Vassão (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Draw	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.68
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.