National Championship 2026 - Portugal - Arakni, Huntsman (CC)

Arakni, Huntsman

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Filipe Casimiro

31st • 4-1-1

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

90:10

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vitor Rocha (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 89:11

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Carlos Guilherme (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tiago Queirós (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Carla Correia (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Draw vs Rúben Caldeira (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Bruno Patrão (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.03
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.73
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Draw	✗	0.35	-
R9	CC	Zyggy Starlight	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.42

Filipe Ficalho

26th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

90:10

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Vitor Rocha (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 89:11

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jose Alves (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rodolfo Brites (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Joao Pereira (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.05
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.45
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Carlos Guilherme

42nd • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Manuel Cunha (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Filipe Casimiro (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bernardo José Alves (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Fernandes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs João Vieira (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R9	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.