National Championship 2026 - Poland - Fai, Rising Rebellion (CC)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lukasz Ziemba

3rd • 8-1-0

89%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

4.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kacper Szymański (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Patrycjusz Janas (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

95:5

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Urban (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 93:7

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Adrian Kowalski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Filip Mikołajczyk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

95:5

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Dawid Mrówczyński (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 93:7

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Lillianna Student (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.09
R2	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.03
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.10
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.85
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.89
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lukasz Bigos

37th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maciej Brożek (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bartosz Binczyk (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Artur Wysocki (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mariusz Gapski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Miłosz Bielawski (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Kamil Grodecki (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Przemysław Smoleń (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.28
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R9	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.56
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.28

Stanislau Chykileuski

52nd • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mateusz Sadowy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jakub Łoboda (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kamil Zabłocki senior (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Paweł Kręcki (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Przemysław Leszczyński (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Sebastian Niedzielec (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Michał Zalejski (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.11
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.13
R9	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Patryk Gułaś

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bartosz Knitter (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hubert Pszczółkowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tomasz Stanicki (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marcin Deczkowski (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.61
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.21

Ania Grudnowska

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Skruch (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Przemysław Smoleń (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Przemysław Leszczyński (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Maciej Michalak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.74
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.