Arakni, Marionette
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 9-1-0
70%
Meta
+4.0
Perf
4.9
Surp
6.9
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sebastian Piełudź (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mateusz Sadowy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Wojciech Ruciński (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Paweł Sosnowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Maciej Chmielewski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Rafał Liwerski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Maciej Chmielewski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Lukasz Ziemba (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Filip Mikołajczyk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
70% (7/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+4.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
4.9 total deviation
Difficulty
6.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
21st • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Stanislau Chykileuski (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Igor Wesołowski (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Piotr Siewko (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Rafał Liwerski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Lillianna Student (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Artur Wysocki (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
100%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.3
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Miłosz Bielawski (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Krzysztof Rybczyński (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ania Grudnowska (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Wojciech Hudziak (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 75:25
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Stanislau Chykileuski (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 75% | Win |
| R8 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Paweł Romanowski (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Przemysław Leszczyński (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Loss vs Piotr Krzempek (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.8
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jakub Koenner (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Bartosz Dominiak (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Rafał Liwerski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Hubert Pszczółkowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Wojciech Hudziak (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 75:25
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kacper Sobieszczuk (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Filip Januszewski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Krzysztof Szukajło (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Lukasz Bigos (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jakub Koenner (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Błażej Gierszon (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mateusz Ziętkiewicz (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56
Round 3: Loss vs Piotr Zapała (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Dominik Popławski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.