Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2026 - Poland
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
15th • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.2
Surp
3.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Wojciech Hudziak (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Lillianna Student (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sebastian Piełudź (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jakub "Harry" Ratajczyk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Paweł Romanowski (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Bartosz Ziemba (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Piotr Chudobinski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
43rd • 3-4-0
0%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.9
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michał Biernacki (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tomasz Zalejski (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
Round 3: Win vs Dominik Popławski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Piotr Przyczyna (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
Round 8: Win vs Bogdan Ignacyk (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Kamila Cała (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Franciszek Sapikowski (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
0% (0/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
25%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.7
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kacper Sobieszczuk (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sebastian Niedzielec (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bogdan Ignacyk (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Stanislau Chykileuski (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kamil Grodecki (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kacper Szymański (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andrzej Lamecki (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Artur Dziadosz (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Filip Mikołajczyk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62
Round 4: Loss vs Bartłomiej Chrobak (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 70% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.