National Championship 2026 - Poland - Puffin, Hightail (CC)

Puffin, Hightail

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Bogdan Ignacyk

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maciej Laskowski (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jakub Koenner (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Paweł Kręcki (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kacper Sobieszczuk (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Stefan Dyjak (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.41
R4	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Tomasz Stanicki

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mariusz Gapski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Patryk Gułaś (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Grzegorz Marcisz (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.60
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Grzegorz Marcisz

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Loay Achmasiewicz (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 31:69

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniyar Saduakassov (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Filip Mikołajczyk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tomasz Stanicki (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.35
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.