National Championship 2026 - Poland - Dorinthea Ironsong (CC)

Dorinthea Ironsong

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki

5th • 7-1-0

88%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Miłosz Wierzchoń (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Miłosz Bielawski (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dawid Mrówczyński (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sebastian Niedzielec (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Aleksander Zabłocki (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Piotr Chudobinski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

85:15

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Maciej Chmielewski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 87:13

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Lukasz Ziemba (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.68	0.41
R3	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.12
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.25
R11	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Pawel Kutesko

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Marcin Deczkowski (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kamila Cała (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bartłomiej Chrobak (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mikołaj Walc (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Mikołaj Łysko (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Adam Skruch (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.68	1.08
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Miłosz Wierzchoń

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dawid Mrówczyński (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adrian Słowiński (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniyar Saduakassov (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Jakub Koenner

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Piełudź (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bogdan Ignacyk (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bartosz Binczyk (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Jakub Szczotka

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Piotr Siewko (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.