Zyggy Starlight at National Championship 2026

Zyggy Starlight

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Wojciech Arendt

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mateusz Ziętkiewicz (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Loay Achmasiewicz (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kacper Mocek (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 80:20

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Filip Mikołajczyk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 28:72

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Piotr Stelmach (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.16
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Wojciech Andrusewicz

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Piotr Przyczyna (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Błażej Gierszon (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Loay Achmasiewicz (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Urban (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.11
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Marcin Pelzner

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Franciszek Sapikowski (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michał Billewicz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniyar Saduakassov (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 86:14

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Przemysław Smoleń (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.17
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Jakub Łoboda

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dawid Mrówczyński (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Stanislau Chykileuski (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.