Fai, Rising Rebellion
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
14th • 5-1-0
67%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
2.8
Surp
4.3
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Krister Lindroos (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 25:75
Round 2: Win vs Juha-Antti Kurttila (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Luna Zitting (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Mikael Kullström (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
4.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
9th • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.4
Surp
2.4
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jirka Ilomäki (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matti Leppänen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
95:5
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matias Paulasaari (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 93:7
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Lari Lampainen (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Mikko Salmi (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs August Rokkanen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 95% | Win |
| R4 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
26th • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.6
Surp
3.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mikael Kullström (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
95:5
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matias Paulasaari (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 93:7
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ilmari Lahtinen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Valentin Soloviev (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
Round 8: Win vs Heikki Halla-aho (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Miika Räisänen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 95% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
12th • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.2
Surp
3.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Antti Knuuttila (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Härmälä (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Adrien Delacroix (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Joonas Hakalahti (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jyry Soinio (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Jiahao Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
18th • 2-3-1
67%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Henry Leskinen (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Antti Humalamäki (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Matti Salmi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Matias Viitasalo (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Linnea Söderlund (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Juha Saarnilampi (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Zyggy Starlight | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Draw |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mikael Teittinen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Adrien Delacroix (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Juha Saarnilampi (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Aarni Rantamäki (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.