National Championship 2026 - Finland - Ira, Scarlet Revenger (CC)

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Miro Nurmela

3rd • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Olli Saarinen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Valentin Soloviev (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rene Aho (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Juha-Matti Pihlajamäki (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jiahao Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jesse Härmälä (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Rene Aho (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.08
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.14
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.14
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.61
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.68
R11	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Matti Salmi

dropped • 2-1-1

25%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Antti Tikkakoski (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Mikael Kullström (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sami Koivisto (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.37
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Draw	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.16

Joonas Hakalahti

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eero Aho (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jan Hell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lauri Koivisto (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mikko Salmi (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.