Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2026 - Finland

Arakni, Marionette

Arakni, Marionette

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

3rd • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Henrik Moilanen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Valtteri Kurhela (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Krister Lindroos (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 75:25

Dash I/O

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joonas Viljanen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Kassai of the Golden Sand

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs August Rokkanen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

Jarl Vetreiði

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jirka Ilomäki (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Kassai of the Golden Sand

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs August Rokkanen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

Jarl Vetreiði

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jirka Ilomäki (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.21
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.16
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.77
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Ville Teräväinen

23rd • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.0

Diff

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pekka Mäkipelto (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matti Salmi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

Prism, Awakener of Sol

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Riku Majamaa (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jan Hell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Juha Saarnilampi (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

Kassai of the Golden Sand

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Antti Knuuttila (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.28
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.93

Matti Leppänen

38th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matias Paulasaari (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 57:43

Fai, Rising Rebellion

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jyry Soinio (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

Jarl Vetreiði

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aleksi Korkalainen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Adrien Delacroix (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 86:14

Jarl Vetreiði

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jarko Räisänen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Lari Lampainen (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 68:32

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.45
R4	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.15
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R9	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.85

45th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joonas Hakalahti (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Miika Räisänen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant

85:15

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Adrien Delacroix (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 86:14

Puffin, Hightail

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Tommi Vornanen (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.28
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.30
R9	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Pekka Mäkipelto

48th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Jarl Vetreiði

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aleksi Korkalainen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Puffin, Hightail

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Captain (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matias Paulasaari (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 57:43

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Valtteri Laine (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant

85:15

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Toni Seppälä (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 86:14

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.30
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.55
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.33

47th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

Kassai of the Golden Sand

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs August Rokkanen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Dash I/O

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joonas Viljanen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Puffin, Hightail

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tommi Vornanen (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Jarl Vetreiði

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Aleksi Korkalainen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Pekka Mäkipelto (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Juha-Antti Kurttila (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.61
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Toni Savolainen

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Linnea Söderlund (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

Dash I/O

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Olli Saarinen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jani Leinonen (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 57:43

Dash I/O

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Aino-Mari Uisma (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.62
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.12

dropped • 1-2-1

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Valtteri Kurhela (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

Kassai of the Golden Sand

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Marko Syrjälä (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Valentin Soloviev (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matti Salmi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.21
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Draw	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.