National Championship 2026 - Finland - Oscilio, Constella Intelligence (CC)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ville Schalin

5th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jani Leinonen (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mikael Teittinen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Juha-Matti Pihlajamäki (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ilmari Lahtinen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jirka Ilomäki (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Linnea Söderlund (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Rene Aho (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.08
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.20
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.52
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.44
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.97
R10	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Jiahao Chen

16th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ilmari Lahtinen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matias Viitasalo (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aarni Rantamäki (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Pauli Viimaranta (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Miro Nurmela (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Mikko Salmi (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.13
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.69
R8	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R9	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Lauri Koivisto

17th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Otso Somerla (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Juha-Matti Pihlajamäki (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joonas Hakalahti (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mikael Teittinen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Ilmari Lahtinen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.07
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.47
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Kalle Kivilahti

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aleksi Mäkinen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Antti Knuuttila (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Laura Väisälä (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Härmälä (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Otso Somerla (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.26
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.22
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.46
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.