Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2026

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ilmari Lahtinen

11th • 4-2-0

17%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jiahao Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Krister Lindroos (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Henry Leskinen (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ville Schalin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jesse Härmälä (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Lauri Koivisto (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.21
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.92

Eero Aho

28th • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.8

Surp

4.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joonas Hakalahti (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Captain (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Toni Seppälä (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Juha-Antti Kurttila (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Lari Lampainen (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Marko Syrjälä (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R8	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.76
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.91

Laura Väisälä

dropped • 3-1-0

Meta

+1.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Juha-Antti Kurttila (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aino-Mari Uisma (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kalle Kivilahti (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dmitry Petrov (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.41
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.55
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.54

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.