Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at World Championship: Osaka
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
94th • 5-4-0
22%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
4.3
Surp
4.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60
Round 2: Win vs Nakara Juntavong (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sadat Minick (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs KOHEI TAKANO (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Zachary Cauchi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66
35:65
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Daniel Rutkowski (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
22% (2/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
4.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R13 | Dash I/O | 35% | Loss |
| R14 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R15 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
100th • 4-5-0
11%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
4.0
Surp
1.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mason Galvan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Colin Tang (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60
Round 3: Win vs Athena Halkia (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Shane Martin (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Majin Bae (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58
30:70
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70
35:65
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66
35:65
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Kaiser Wong (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63
25:75
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Ji Timm Lee (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
11% (1/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R13 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R14 | Dash I/O | 35% | Loss |
| R15 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.1
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Theo Montero Ciscar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jack Mountford (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew W (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marcos Vassão (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Marshal Meador (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.6
Surp
2.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Maciej Janik (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 56:44
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jeroen van der Wal (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tee Thebeau (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60
Round 5: Win vs CYK Lionel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.6
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Darren Taing (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs KeDuo Yang (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kunihiko Date (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs kou rui yang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Pedro Esaki (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs kazuma kuwahara (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Carlo Ople (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Pathomtarn (Tony) Arsaithamkul (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Eugene Phua (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
0%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.6
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Handy Wijaya (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Terry Yuen (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60
Round 5: Win vs Barrett Goss (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs haruka sonoda (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Joe Colon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jodey Burney (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Justian Frederick (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.