World Championship: Osaka - Kano, Dracai of Aether (CC)

Kano, Dracai of Aether

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ezequiel Emeraldo

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cayle Mccreath (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacky Ho (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs To Cheng (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

85:15

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Wei Jian Gan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 84:16

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.70
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.26

Steven Young

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hariz Hamdan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Somers (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.14
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.07

Vincent Weinzierl

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Taine Markley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alberto Di Blasi (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robert Piper (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Isaac Murray (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Noah Hicks (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.26
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.41
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Zak Miller

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Soh zheng (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Szabolcs Egri (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tsz Lung Wu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Vulpe Razvan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.31
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.