Kano, Dracai of Aether at World Championship: Osaka

Kano, Dracai of Aether

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ezequiel Emeraldo

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cayle Mccreath (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacky Ho (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs To Cheng (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Wei Jian Gan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.30

Steven Young

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hariz Hamdan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 31:69

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Somers (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 31:69

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.13
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.32

Vincent Weinzierl

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Taine Markley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alberto Di Blasi (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robert Piper (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Isaac Murray (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Noah Hicks (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.22
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.38
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Zak Miller

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Soh zheng (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Szabolcs Egri (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tsz Lung Wu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Vulpe Razvan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.48
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.