Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at World Championship: Osaka

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jaehwan Kwak

30th • 6-3-0

Meta

+2.7

Perf

4.8

Surp

6.6

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ilias Karamanis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Estarlin Cruz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Raphael Rosa (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Colin Li (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

25:75

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Arthur Trehet (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Grzegorz Kowalski (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

25:75

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

0% (0/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

6.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.17
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.57
R5	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.71
R12	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.70
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Win	✗	0.77	3.05
R14	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R15	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Alexander Vore

29th • 4-5-0

33%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.5

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nathan Youngblut (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jyry Soinio (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 77:23

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Malcolm Song (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Julio Anthony (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Michael Lau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Isaac Katsakis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Rob Catton (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Isaac Murray (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.08
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.55
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.63
R12	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.66	2.22
R14	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R15	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Maciej Kawończyk

dropped • 3-2-0

20%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Guillermo Regueiro (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Elly Bird (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs KOHEI TAKANO (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.26
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.92
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.72

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.