Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at National Championship 2026

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

シンヤカワグチ

41st • 2-5-0

29%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Shuto Ushiro (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs タカヤスギモト (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ken Kuwahara (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs 岡本一朗 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Okamoto Natsuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs KOTA SANJO (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Kazushi Nimiya (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R10	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Kenta Miki

dropped • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Keisuke Iwamura (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs haruka sonoda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Shiraishi Koki (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Iada Caio (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Kanata Ishimaru (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs KOHEI TAKANO (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.18
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.65
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

takahiro nishimura

dropped • 1-5-0

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yoshiki Inada (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Taiki Koike (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs humiaki hattori (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yuusuke Kiguchi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jun Sato (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Hayate Nakamura (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

0% (0/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.77
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R9	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

naoyuki kojima

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 稜馬石川 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yoshiki Inada (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kei Igarashi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.