National Championship 2026 - Japan - Kayo, Underhanded Cheat (CC)

Kayo, Underhanded Cheat

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kazushi Nimiya

52nd • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs タカヤスギモト (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs suguru ishimaru (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs TAKUYA KOJIMA (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Kei Igarashi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs RICARDO DIAZ (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs シンヤカワグチ (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R8	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.14
R9	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R10	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.59

佑紀丸田

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 祥弘橋本 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs yuuta nojiri (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tomoaki Yoshimura (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.82
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.23
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

颯小嶺

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 25:75

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.