Fai, Rising Rebellion at National Championship 2026

Fai, Rising Rebellion

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ken Kuwahara

5th • 5-3-0

12%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.7

Surp

4.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Takahito Natsume (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kanata Ishimaru (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs シンヤカワグチ (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs ヤマモトダイスケ (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs TAKUYA KOJIMA (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs EITARO SHIBATA (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ryosuke Urase (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

15:85

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86

Meta Fit

12% (1/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.53
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.37
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-

RICARDO DIAZ

48th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs ジュンアラキ (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yuma Ishikura (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Taiki Koike (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hiroaki Miyamura (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Shuto Ushiro (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Kazushi Nimiya (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs ryuto nakagawa (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.33
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.51
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.75
R10	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Yuta Maruo

45th • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yukitaka Inohara (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs 岡本一朗 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs 三輪佑樹 (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs SHINICHI KITAHARA (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs タカヤスギモト (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Yuma Ishikura (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.46
R4	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.24
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.