Ira, Scarlet Revenger at National Championship 2026 - Japan
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
2nd • 8-2-0
40%
Meta
+3.1
Perf
4.9
Surp
5.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ken Kuwahara (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41
Round 2: Win vs TAKUYA KOJIMA (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
Round 4: Win vs 根本 正尭 (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs 雅仁 富山 (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Ryouichi Sakazaki (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55
70:30
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs 祥弘 橋本 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Okamoto Natsuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Kazuki Itabashi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
40% (4/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
4.9 total deviation
Difficulty
5.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Win |
| R11 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R13 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
57th • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs 稜馬 石川 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs ryuto nakagawa (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 77:23
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 雅仁 富山 (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs KOTA SANJO (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Takamasa Kamei (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs takahiro nishimura (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Hazama Levi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R9 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
60th • 2-5-0
14%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
3.1
Surp
3.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Soya Okuda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs EITARO SHIBATA (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 稜馬 石川 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs takahiro nishimura (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Yukitaka Inohara (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Jun Sato (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Takaaki Ueno (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
dropped • 1-5-0
0%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs EITARO SHIBATA (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs yohei ohki (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tatsuya OKANISHI (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs hirotsugu shimauchi (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Kohei Okuda (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
0% (0/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Loss |
| R8 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, Huntsman | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs ヤマモト ダイスケ (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yusuke Asama (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 53:47
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 結友 太田 (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs naoyuki kojima (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 53:47
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Kazushi Nimiya (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kei Igarashi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 2: Win vs hirotsugu shimauchi (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 根本 正尭 (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ken Kuwahara (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Ran Sasaki (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mason Galvan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Okamoto Natsuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Hiromitsu Okita (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Takamasa Kamei (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.