Chane, Bound by Shadow at Battle Hardened: Osaka
Chane, Bound by Shadow
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 5-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.8
Surp
1.7
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Maximilian Daffinger (Unknown)
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Mohd Imran Jamil (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
65:35
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Liam Holden (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Gary White (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Colin Li (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R6
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
R8
R8 LL
Round 8: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (8/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 50% | Loss |
22nd • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.2
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Round 2: Win vs Tracy Reeves (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
55:45
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Toni Schwarze (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 53:47
65:35
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Liam Holden (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33
55:45
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 53:47
R6
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Gary White (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R7
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Colin Li (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
29th • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.9
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Roger Bodee (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 43:57
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs tomoya kitagawa (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Leo Shea (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R6
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs YUICHI AIKYO (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R7
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Valentin Varga (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Tetsushi Nishida (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
50:50
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Raphael Rosa (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs 野原 由一 (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
dropped • 0-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
0.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
25:75
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Suh Jaeyong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 25:75
45:55
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
0% (0/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
100%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Tye Soens (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (2/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
100%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (2/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
50%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.1
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 43:57
Round 2: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (1/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 0-1-0
0%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
0.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
0% (0/1 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.