Battle Hardened: Osaka - Dash I/O (LL)

Dash I/O

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

David Yau

3rd • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.9

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Luke Kennedy (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Hao-Han Chuang (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

65:35

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Tetsushi Nishida (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 65:35

80:20

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs HyoungJun You (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 81:19

30:70

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Dennis Zhang (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

65:35

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Carlo Ople (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 65:35

80:20

R8 LL

Round 8: Win vs Suh Jaeyong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 81:19

70:30

R9 LL

Round 9: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.28
R5	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.17
R6	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.24
R7	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.49
R8	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.27
R9	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Colin Li

11th • 5-2-0

29%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Bernard Eng (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

30:70

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Tee Thebeau (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

80:20

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Suh Jaeyong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 81:19

45:55

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 39:61

30:70

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 28:72

40:60

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.53
R3	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.13
R4	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.68
R5	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R7	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.34

Xincheng Hou

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Raphael Rosa (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Damien Hutchins (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 71:29

40:60

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Dreisziger (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

30:70

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs David Lee (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	LL	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.29
R4	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.10
R5	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Thomas Bailey Galbraith

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

65:35

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Jackson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Xincheng Hou (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61

80:20

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Suh Jaeyong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.16
R2	LL	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.