Briar, Warden of Thorns at Battle Hardened: Osaka
Briar, Warden of Thorns
11 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.9
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Nova Chan (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs yuuta nojiri (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs 周万 濵口 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Valentin Varga (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 45:55
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Xavier McLean (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
35:65
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 35:65
R7
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs David Yau (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
30:70
R8 LL
Round 8: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 30% | Loss |
17th • 5-2-0
71%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.5
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Carlo Ople (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Takamasa Kamei (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Round 4: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Thomas Li (Unknown)
45:55
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Peng Joon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 45:55
70:30
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 68:32
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 70% | Win |
24th • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.0
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Blake Godenzi (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Carlo Ople (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 29:71
70:30
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Toni Schwarze (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 68:32
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Chun On Anson Wong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
50:50
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs DYLAN MANGINI (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 7: Loss vs Shuto Ushiro (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 65% | Loss |
26th • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Shai Edginton (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Max Dieckmann (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
35:65
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 33:67
35:65
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Athena Halkia (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 6: Loss vs HyoungJun You (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
R7
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Ryusei Tani (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
32nd • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.4
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Darryn Ying (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
45:55
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Valentin Varga (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 45:55
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Liam Canning (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Chun On Anson Wong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Ryusei Tani (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs yuuta nojiri (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.7
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs yuuta nojiri (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Ryusei Tani (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Wiktor Woźniak (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs YUICHI AIKYO (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
65:35
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Takumi Watanabe (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 64:36
35:65
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Tye Soens (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Ezequiel Emeraldo (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Richard Gillingham (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Leo Shea (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
70:30
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Jeong Ho Shin (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 68:32
50:50
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Liam Holden (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-1-1
50%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs tomoya kitagawa (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
70:30
R2 LL
Round 2: Draw vs Jeong Ho Shin (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 68:32
45:55
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Takaaki Ueno (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 45:55
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs David Yau (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 70% | Draw |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
1.5
Surp
1.2
Diff
30:70
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Marcos Vassão (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 29:71
Round 2: Win vs Shai Edginton (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Ryusei Tani (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-1-0
0%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
1.0
Surp
1.6
Diff
30:70
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs David Lee (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 29:71
Round 2: Win vs 大貴 浅海 (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Meta Fit
0% (0/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (0.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 35% | Win |
dropped • 0-2-0
100%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.0
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Johnson (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (2/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 70% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.