Battle Hardened: Osaka - Lexi, Livewire (LL)

Lexi, Livewire

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Valentin Varga

31st • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

35:65

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

45:55

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs DYLAN MANGINI (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Carlo Ople (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 47:53

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Liam Canning (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Viliam Kubik (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 50:50

20:80

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs 野原由一 (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.21
R2	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.31
R3	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Peng Joon

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Toni Schwarze (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 50:50

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Gary White (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 36:64

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Darryn Ying (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Nova Chan (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	LL	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Mohd Imran Jamil

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Beni (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 20:80

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Li (Unknown)

45:55

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Risa Shioji (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 43:57

15:85

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	LL	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.98
R5	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Hao-Han Chuang

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

15:85

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85

15:85

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs David Yau (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Darryn Ying (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs YUICHI AIKYO (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R2	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	15%	Win	✗	0.85	1.09
R3	LL	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	LL	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	LL	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lee Ming-Han

dropped • 1-1-1

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

15:85

R1 LL

Round 1: Draw vs Jean Luka Zorko (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85

20:80

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Justin Cu (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

15:85

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	15%	Draw	✗	0.15	-
R2	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	20%	Win	✗	0.80	1.55
R3	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Takaaki Ueno

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Tetsushi Nishida (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Nathan Beni

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Mohd Imran Jamil (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.