Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light at Battle Hardened: Osaka
Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
18th • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.6
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Daniel Johnson (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Earl Edison Ang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
50:50
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Viliam Kubik (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Colin Li (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
45:55
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 47:53
R6
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
30:70
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Nova Chan (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Loss |
23rd • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.1
Diff
45:55
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Dennis Zhang (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Matt Rogers (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Ezequiel Emeraldo (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R6
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Valentin Varga (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
45:55
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs David Lee (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 45% | Loss |
28th • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.8
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 2: Win vs Ryan Jackson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
50:50
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Risa Shioji (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Marcos Vassão (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Shuto Ushiro (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 42:58
R7
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Gary White (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Athena Halkia (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
40:60
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs HyoungJun You (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Takumi Watanabe (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 42:58
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Damien Hutchins (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
50:50
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Viliam Kubik (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-1
25%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.2
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Richard Gillingham (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
30:70
R2 LL
Round 2: Draw vs Tetsushi Nishida (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 32:68
45:55
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 43:57
30:70
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Athena Halkia (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Draw |
| R3 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.3
Diff
40:60
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Tracy Reeves (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 42:58
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Peng Joon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
45:55
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 47:53
30:70
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs yuuta nojiri (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.