Aurora, Shooting Star at Battle Hardened: Osaka

Aurora, Shooting Star

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Suh Jaeyong

5th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.5

Diff

75:25

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Andy Pham (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 75:25

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs YUICHI AIKYO (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Colin Li (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs shoma yamamura (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs haruka sonoda (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs David Yau (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.05
R2	LL	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	LL	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	LL	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.95
R7	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.11
R8	LL	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Shuto Ushiro

15th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs RUTING QIAN (Unknown)

40:60

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Richard Gillingham (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Liam Canning (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Johnson (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs yuuta nojiri (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	LL	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.67
R7	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.46

HyoungJun You

20th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Li (Unknown)

60:40

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Ezequiel Emeraldo (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 58:42

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Victor Mercado (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

40:60

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs David Yau (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

35:65

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Liam Holden (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

15:85

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.22
R3	LL	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	LL	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.25
R7	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Takumi Watanabe

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs LSS Dev (Unknown)

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Ezequiel Emeraldo (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Blake Godenzi (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	LL	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.47
R4	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Tracy Reeves

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Toni Schwarze (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Aurora Reeves

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs 周万濵口 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.