Battle Hardened: Osaka - Aurora, Shooting Star (LL)

Aurora, Shooting Star

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Suh Jaeyong

5th • 6-2-0

38%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

4.2

Diff

65:35

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Andy Pham (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 62:38

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs YUICHI AIKYO (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

20:80

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Colin Li (Dash I/O) - Expected: 19:81

20:80

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Dash I/O) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

55:45

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs shoma yamamura (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs haruka sonoda (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

20:80

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs David Yau (Dash I/O) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.08
R2	LL	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	LL	Dash I/O	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R4	LL	Dash I/O	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.20
R5	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.50
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.01
R7	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.18
R8	LL	Dash I/O	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Shuto Ushiro

15th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.7

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs RUTING QIAN (Unknown)

40:60

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Richard Gillingham (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Liam Canning (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Johnson (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 48:52

30:70

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs yuuta nojiri (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	LL	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R5	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.92
R7	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.74

HyoungJun You

20th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Li (Unknown)

50:50

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Ezequiel Emeraldo (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 48:52

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Victor Mercado (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61

20:80

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs David Yau (Dash I/O) - Expected: 19:81

30:70

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Liam Holden (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

20:80

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.31
R3	LL	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	LL	Dash I/O	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R6	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.49
R7	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	20%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Takumi Watanabe

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs LSS Dev (Unknown)

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Ezequiel Emeraldo (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61

30:70

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Blake Godenzi (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	LL	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.64
R4	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Tracy Reeves

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Toni Schwarze (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Aurora Reeves

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs 周万濵口 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.