Prism, Awakener of Sol at Battle Hardened: Osaka

Prism, Awakener of Sol

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ryusei Tani

33rd • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Earl Edison Ang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Blake Godenzi (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

25:75

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Jodey Burney (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

25:75

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 27:73

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Risa Shioji (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

25:75

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Liam Holden (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.54
R3	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.80
R4	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R6	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

周万濵口

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Aurora Reeves (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Liam Canning (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

25:75

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Carlo Ople (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 27:73

35:65

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 36:64

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R4	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	LL	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Leo Shea

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Risa Shioji (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

25:75

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Athena Halkia (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 27:73

35:65

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Shai Edginton (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs 野原由一 (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R4	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.17
R5	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Earl Edison Ang

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Ryusei Tani (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Cohen (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	LL	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Richard Gillingham

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Jeong Ho Shin (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

25:75

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Athena Halkia (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Shuto Ushiro (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.25
R3	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.