Battle Hardened: Osaka - Iyslander, Stormbind (LL)

Iyslander, Stormbind

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Victor Mercado

16th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Risa Shioji (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Takumi Watanabe (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs HyoungJun You (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

25:75

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs David Lee (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 27:73

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs 周万濵口 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

70:30

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 71:29

70:30

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Tye Soens (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R5	LL	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.42
R7	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.49

YUICHI AIKYO

34th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Wiktor Woźniak (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Suh Jaeyong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

25:75

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 27:73

15:85

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Blake Godenzi (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 15:85

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Hao-Han Chuang (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs 野原由一 (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Risa Shioji (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R4	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R5	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

Darryn Ying

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

15:85

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 15:85

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Wiktor Woźniak (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

70:30

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Tye Soens (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Hao-Han Chuang (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Peng Joon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R2	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R4	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.