Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
48th • 7-5-0
50%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
5.9
Surp
4.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Colby Gray (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Max Welburn (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jason Watkins (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tre Baroncini (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
Round 6: Win vs Bobby Bourque (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jason Thai (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs David Lee (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R9
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
80:20
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Eric Pettinelli (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 80:20
Round 11: Win vs Jessie Naamani (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Cass Emerson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 80% | Win |
| R11 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 35% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 6-5-0
18%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
5.4
Surp
3.3
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Eric Gaudreault (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sam Titizian (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Luke Martin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Joseph Surowaniec (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Tyler Brotton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Timothy Chow (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 32:68
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Nicholas Gaudet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53
R10
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R11
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs None (Unknown)
Meta Fit
18% (2/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
| R9 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Samuel Gemme (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Justin Fernandes (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mitchell Belliveau (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jo Burch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Hugo Morissette (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Victor Mercado (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53
Round 7: Win vs Patrick Larouche (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Liam Larocque (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Cayne Wilbur (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mikail Khan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Gaudet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Luke Martin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.1
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Caleb Zavits (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 80:20
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nikola Pouliot (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 32:68
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Leo Shea (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jeff Barber (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.