Battle Hardened: Valencia 2025 - Chane (SAGE)

Chane

24 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Petter Olsson

1st • 6-1-0

86%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.4

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dayvid Kayal (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ugnius Švedas (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Pablo Fernández-Baldor (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Sergio Ruiz Márquez (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Rob Catton (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Federico Sirri (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.80
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Pablo Pintor

3rd • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dídac Fernández Cadenas (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tom Ward (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Carlos Carrero (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Felix Krisch (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.57
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.67
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Tom Ward

12th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Valerio Colonna (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Leoluca Colletti (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Emanuele Damiani (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Paolo Auria (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.49
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.67
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.66
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Rob Catton

23rd • 5-2-0

43%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.3

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Marcello Mutalipassi (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tommaso Fabbri (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Nathanaël frederic (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Petter Olsson (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Brent Van de Staey (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.23
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.45
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.91
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.98
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Yassine Echafai Tripiana

24th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.5

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Anton Figueroa (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Marc Bonnet (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Fredrik Mecklin (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Mattia Vigliarolo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Bruno Mendes (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Nathan Hills (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.36
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jimmy Nguyen

28th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mathew Davies (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daja Todesco (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Emanuele Tozzi (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Lewis Miller (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Carlos Carrero (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Christian Franco

34th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Correas (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Bastian Henneberg (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ben Dadon (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Dayvid Kayal (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Fedir Kokhan (Oldhim) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Marcel Andrzejczak

49th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Federico Sirri (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Javier Querol (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tam Pham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Correas (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Daja Todesco (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jakub Koenner (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.58

Guillem Las Heras

55th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Richard Carr (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dylan Koutsos (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Adrien Kurek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Fedir Kokhan (Oldhim) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Christel David (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs diego santiago (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Sergio Ruiz Márquez

56th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Antoine Pech (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs diego santiago (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mathew Davies (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Petter Olsson (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lukasz Bigos (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Nathanaël frederic (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.21
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.66
R7	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Emanuele Damiani

64th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Fedir Kokhan (Oldhim) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Dimitri Francois (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Ward (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Nathanaël frederic (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jakub Koenner (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jonathan DUMONT (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.31
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Daja Todesco

66th • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.9

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan DUMONT (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alvaro Toledano Benito (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Marcel Andrzejczak (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ben Emmanuel (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Alvaro Toledano Benito

74th • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Edward Catling (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Antoine Pech (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 36:64

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs None ()

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Valerio Colonna (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Javier Querol (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Valerio Colonna

81st • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Ward (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mariano Rivero (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Victor Lima (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Eric Lundh (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alvaro Toledano Benito (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs None ()

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R7	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Marc Bonnet

82nd • 1-6-0

86%

Meta

-2.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ben Emmanuel (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Javier Querol (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Eric Lundh (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan DUMONT (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Charlotte Little (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Dayvid Kayal

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Petter Olsson (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Pierre-André Joly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Christian Franco (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jasan araury Romero Gómez (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Florian Schmidt (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Stefan Hilderink

dropped • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tommaso Fabbri (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Amadeus Landin (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Steffen Bauer (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Guilherme Coutinho (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs marco guerra (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Silver Age	Betsy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Federico Lami

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jasan araury Romero Gómez (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Eric Lundh (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Victor Lima (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Adam Ray (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Andrei Lazar

dropped • 0-5-0

80%

Meta

-2.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Charlotte Little (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Salina Vaes (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Fredrik Mecklin (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan DUMONT (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Richard Carr

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alessandro Sgura (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs marco guerra (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Oliver Kuhrt (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Marcus Rosemin

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Brent Van de Staey (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lewis Miller (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Matteo Brunori (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Red Itärinne

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan DUMONT (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Fedir Kokhan (Oldhim) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.26
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Andrea Milaneschi

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Miguel Cardoso (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Ray (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Alberto Di Blasi

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nathanaël frederic (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.