Iyslander at Battle Hardened: Valencia 2025

Iyslander

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ben Dadon

16th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tam Pham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 48:52

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs marco guerra (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Christian Franco (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Enes Findik (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Westmore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.46
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64

Pablo Fernández-Baldor

38th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jeroen Caspers (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dimitri Francois (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 48:52

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Petter Olsson (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Emanuele Tozzi (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ben Emmanuel (Fai) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lukasz Bigos (Kano) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.60
R5	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.05
R6	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.98
R7	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Jeroen Caspers

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Pablo Fernández-Baldor (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Guilherme Coutinho (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrea Malpassi (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Azalea) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.63
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.