Iyslander at Battle Hardened: Valencia 2025

Iyslander

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ben Dadon

16th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.2

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tam Pham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs marco guerra (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Christian Franco (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Enes Findik (Briar) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Westmore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.44
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.91

Pablo Fernández-Baldor

38th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jeroen Caspers (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dimitri Francois (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Petter Olsson (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Emanuele Tozzi (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ben Emmanuel (Fai) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lukasz Bigos (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.72
R5	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.97
R6	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Jeroen Caspers

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Pablo Fernández-Baldor (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Guilherme Coutinho (Briar) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrea Malpassi (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.76
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.