Fai at Battle Hardened: Valencia 2025

Fai

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ben Emmanuel

71st • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Marc Bonnet (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Oliver Kuhrt (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Pablo Fernández-Baldor (Iyslander) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.76
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lewis Miller

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Oliver Kuhrt (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Marcus Rosemin (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Simon EYRAGNE

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.